The People’s Democratic Party (PDP), once celebrated as Africa’s largest political party, has been facing significant challenges in recent times. Despite its ambition to reclaim its former dominance in Nigeria’s political landscape, the party’s struggles during off-cycle governorship elections have raised serious doubts about its chances in the 2027 general elections.
Since President Bola Ahmed Tinubu of the All Progressives Congress (APC) assumed office on May 29, 2023, five off-cycle governorship elections have been held in Bayelsa, Kogi, Imo, Edo, and Ondo states. The results reveal a troubling pattern for the PDP: the APC emerged victorious in four states, while the PDP managed to secure just one.
The PDP’s lackluster performance in these elections has highlighted its internal struggles. Leadership disputes and factional infighting have weakened the party, leaving it unable to present a unified front against the ruling APC. The contest for the National Chairmanship of the PDP has further divided its leadership, preventing the party from focusing on strategies to counter its political opponents.
These internal divisions, combined with the party’s declining influence, have left many political analysts questioning whether the PDP can survive as a credible opposition party, let alone pose a significant challenge in the next general election.
Dr. Katchi Ononuju, Director-General of the Heritage Centre, a political and economic think tank, has raised alarms about the APC’s approach to governance. Speaking on the off-cycle elections, he accused the ruling party of employing “state capture” strategies to consolidate power. According to Ononuju, the APC’s tactics involve influencing key institutions such as the Independent National Electoral Commission (INEC) and the judiciary, ensuring favorable outcomes in elections and legal disputes.
“The APC has mastered the art of state capture,” Ononuju explained. “What we are witnessing in states like Edo and Ondo is not democracy but an orchestrated manipulation of the system. Institutions like INEC and the judiciary are being leveraged to ensure victory for the ruling party, leaving no room for accountability.”
He also pointed out that the PDP’s inability to act as a strong opposition has only exacerbated the situation. “The PDP is in a state of disarray. The departure of influential figures like Peter Obi and Rabiu Kwankwaso to form new political movements has left the party fragmented. Without a united front, the opposition cannot effectively challenge the APC’s growing dominance,” he added.
For Ononuju, the path forward for the PDP lies in urgent reform. He argued that party leaders, particularly former presidential candidate Atiku Abubakar, need to prioritize unity over personal ambitions. “Atiku has been a beneficiary of Nigeria’s democracy and its resources. He needs to make sacrifices for the greater good of the party, including supporting a southern candidate in the 2027 elections,” he said.
Ononuju stressed that a cohesive opposition is vital for democracy. “Democracy thrives when there’s a strong opposition to hold the government accountable. Without it, we risk an executive arm that operates unchecked, as we’ve seen under Tinubu’s administration.”
Meanwhile, some voices are advocating for systemic electoral reforms. Lawyer and activist Maduabuchi Idam has called for the National Assembly to abolish off-cycle elections and implement uniform polling schedules across the country. He argued that off-cycle elections put unnecessary strain on Nigeria’s resources and security infrastructure while creating opportunities for corruption.
“Off-cycle elections are a threat to democracy,” Idam stated. “They allow corrupt politicians to manipulate outcomes by focusing resources and attention on specific states. Uniform elections would not only save costs but also prevent the undue influence that arises from staggered polling.”
Idam also suggested that the National Assembly must take steps to ensure that election-related court cases are resolved before officials are sworn in. According to him, this would reduce the need for repeat elections and create a more stable political environment.
Both Ononuju and Idam have expressed concerns about the integrity of Nigeria’s electoral processes. Ononuju accused the APC of compromising INEC and the judiciary by appointing party loyalists to key positions in these institutions. He pointed to instances of alleged electoral fraud and judicial interference as evidence of a broader effort to undermine democracy.
“The amended Electoral Act mandates biometric verification of voters, a system that helped eliminate ghost voters in the last general election,” Ononuju said. “However, the APC’s ‘state capture’ strategy has found ways to circumvent these measures. INEC’s claim of technical glitches during critical moments of the electoral process only raises further questions about the commission’s credibility.”
Idam echoed these sentiments, emphasizing the need for reforms to restore public trust in elections. “The current state of affairs benefits only the political elite. Without genuine reforms, democracy in Nigeria will remain a facade,” he said.
As the 2027 elections draw closer, the challenges facing the PDP highlight broader issues within Nigeria’s political system. The APC’s dominance, fueled by allegations of institutional manipulation, poses a significant hurdle for opposition parties. Meanwhile, the PDP’s internal disunity has left it ill-equipped to counter these tactics or appeal to a disillusioned electorate.
For Nigeria’s democracy to thrive, stakeholders must prioritize electoral integrity, institutional independence, and genuine opposition unity. Political analysts agree that the PDP’s survival—and its ability to challenge the APC—depends on swift and decisive action to address its internal crises and regain public confidence.
Only time will tell if the PDP can regroup and reclaim its place as a dominant force in Nigerian politics or if the APC’s grip on power will remain unchallenged. What is clear, however, is that the stakes for Nigeria’s democracy have never been higher.
